Ethics election poll watch: Norwich South

By Press Office
April 10, 2010

There is a new poll from IPSOS/MORI out, commissioned by the University of East Anglia, for Charles Clark’s Norwich South Constituency, where the Greens are hoping to make inroads.

The results have Greens making gains of 12 pts on the 2005 notional general election result. Labour 39 pts(+2), Conservative 20 pts(-2), Liberal Democrats 19 pts(-11), Green 19 pts(+12).

This is the comment from Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report:

“Clearly it shows Charles Clarke holding on very easily indeed, with the Liberal Democrats collapsing into third place as their support shifts to the Greens, who were in fourth place in 2005 with 7 per cent. The figures do seem somewhat dubious though. Some MPs do buck the national trend to some extent, but with polls showing national swings ranging between 3.5 per cent and 7 per cent from Labour to the Conservatives, any English seat displaying a 2 per cent swing from Conservative to Labour would be a very unusual creature indeed. Charles Clarke may be a high profile figure, but he doesn’t seem an obvious candidate to buck Labour’s trend quite so dramatically.

“In terms of the voting intention question, it appears to have been prompted with the names and parties of the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green and UKIP candidates. Including minor parties in the prompt does run the risk of overestimating their support, but you can see by the contrast between Green support and UKIP support (just 2 per cent) that the comparatively high level of support for the Greens in this poll is not all down to prompting.”

Ekklesia will be reporting on the polls from a slightly different perspective, in line with our 'ethics election' initiative. This will include speficially highlighting what's happening to the smaller parties and 'others' who often get ignored in the polls, but could be important in a balanced/ hung Parliament

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