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Another 'humdinger' from ComRes tonight with their poll for tomorrow's Independent and ITV News showing a 10 point Tory gap over Labour, with the Lib Dems in between.
This is the second poll in two days from ComRes that seems to be at odds with others done around the same fieldwork period. It has Labour in third place and the Lib Dems in second, eight points behind the Tories.
Con 35 per cent (nc)
Lib Dems 27 per cent (+1)
Lab 25 per cent (-1)
Due to the strength of the Lib Dems however this would still be in hung Parliament territory, translating to the Tories being 25 short of an overall majority:
Con 301 seats
Labour 226 seats
Lib Dems 91 seats
Yesterday’s ComRes poll which showed Labour with a nine point lead was called a rogue by some. Today’s poll is based on fieldwork done on 19th and 20th April 2010. The other polls with fieldwork around this time (released yesterday) had the Tories and Lib Dems neck and neck, or Lib Dems in the lead. YouGov for example, had Conservatives 31 per cent, Labour 26 per cent and Lib Dem 34 per cent with the same fieldwork dates as today’s ComRes poll.
So what’s going on?
Anthony at UK Polling Report points out that ComRes are using a rolling poll – half the fieldwork for a poll is also used in the poll the day before. So it may be that the fieldwork done on Monday was the actual rogue and has affected both yesterday’s and today’s results. A couple of weeks ago, we suggested that this election we might see a few more ‘rogues’ this election than we might otherwise expect.
The mystery continues...Tweet