Ethics election poll watch: Lib Dem target seats

By Press Office
April 29, 2010

As we reported a few days ago all eyes should be on Lib Dem marginal seats.

The Guardian's new ICM poll of Liberal Democrat target seats (possibly the first such study of these seats) came out yesterday evening. It looked at the first 42 seats seats where the Lib Dems need a swing of up to 6% to win.

From the 2005 election result it finds:

CON 35%(-1)
LAB 18%(-5)
LDEM 39%(+4)

That means a swing from Labour to Lib Dem of about 4.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems, and from Conservative to Lib Dems of 2.5%. On these figures, the Lib Dems would gain 10 seats from the Conservatives, and 11 from Labour.

But if you drill down into the data looking at Conservative held seats on the one hand and Labour held seats on the other, it sems to show that the Lib Dem advance in marginals is mainly in Labour held seats (although caution required as sample sizes are small). This indicates that the Lib Dems would probably take about 28 or so seats from Labour, but few from the Conservatives.

Ekklesia is reporting on the polls from a perspective in line with our 'ethics election' initiative. This will include specifically highlighting what's happening to the smaller parties and 'others' who often get ignored in the polls, but could be important in a balanced/ hung Parliament. We do not support or endorse betting on poll results. We have also suggested that this election there is likely to be a significant disparity in the polls

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