Between 2010-11 and 2013-14 average incomes are forecast to stagnate and both absolute and relative poverty among children and working-age adults are expected to rise.
That is the situation the UK Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government is presiding over, according to careful projections published by the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, and funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
The IFS has annoyed the deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg in the recent past, by confounding his claims that the government's tax and spending plans were 'progressive'. In fact, they hit the poorest hardest, say critics.
The Institute has gained a strong reputation over the years both for the quality of its research and commentary, and for its willingness to challenge governments of all shades on issues they would rather by-pass.
In their latest report, the Institute for Fiscal Studies researchers forecast absolute and relative income poverty amongst children and working-age adults for each year to 2013-14, using a static tax and benefit micro-simulation model combined with official macroeconomic and demographic forecasts, taking into account current government policy.
They also forecast poverty under a scenario where the coalition Government simply implemented the plans for the tax and benefit system it inherited from the previous administration.
Poverty beyond 2013-14 is likely to be affected by the Universal Credit, they say, and future work will forecast poverty to the end of this Parliament when the Government publishes its Welfare Reform Bill.
Download or read the full report, Child and working-age poverty from 2010 to 2013, by Mike Brewer and Robert Joyce, here (*.PDF Adobe Acrobat file): http://www.ifs.org.uk/pr/child_poverty2013.pdf
More on the Institute for Fiscal Studies: http://www.ifs.org.uk/