Nearly 200 parliamentary seats have not changed hands since World War II

By agency reporter
December 3, 2019

Nearly 14 million voters live in seats that have not changed party hands since the Second World War, according to new research by the Electoral Reform Society (ERS). 

Taking into account equivalent predecessor seats, some seats have not changed party hands since the 19th century, in-depth new ERS research shows. 

The average seat has not changed hands for 42 years, while 11 Labour and 54 Conservative seats have not done so in over a century. 

Just 70 seats – 11 per cent of the total – changed party at the last election, a figure which has been declining in recent years. December’s general election could see just 58 seats change hands, according to YouGov’s MRP projection. 

Key findings:

  • 98 Labour seats have not changed hands since WWII (37 per cent of their 2017 total).
  • 94 Conservative seats have not changed hands since WWII (30 per cent of their 2017 total)
  • 65 seats haven’t changed hands since 1918 or earlier (10 per cent of seats) – affecting 4.8 million potential voters this election
  • 192 seats haven’t changed hands since  1945 or earlier (30 per cent of seats) – affecting 13.7 millionpotential voters this election 

Some seats have not changed party hands since the 19th century, with Conservative Hugo Swire’s equivalent seat won from the Whigs in 1835. The Conservatives won now-Independent Sir Oliver Letwin’s seat in 1857, while Theresa May and Chris Grayling’s seats have been held by the Tories since 1874. 

Dr Jess Garland, Director of Policy and Research for the Electoral Reform Society said: “We’ve heard often that politics is volatile and anything could happen in the coming election, but even so, hundreds of seats across the country haven’t changed party hands for decades. Huge parts of this country are effectively competition-free zones, with ‘safe’ seats leaving voters demoralised and ignored time and again.

“As our research shows – seats representing nearly 14 million voters have not seen party change in a lifetime, and dozens more seats have not seen change in a century. Elections under Westminster’s broken system rely on a handful of ‘battleground’ seats, while many areas barely have a contest at all. 

“When there are seats in this country that have not changed party since before Queen Victoria was on the throne, it’s clear that we need a change. People need to know their vote will count, whichever party they give it to, and wherever they are in the country. Unfortunately, under First Past the Post, some votes count much more than others. 

“No party should have a monopoly on local representation. It’s time for a move to a more diverse, democratic system, away from ‘shoe-in [sic] seats’ and towards ensuring every vote counts. The next government must introduce a fair electoral system and give voters the representation they deserve.”

Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: “Even in landslide years where the balance of power in Westminster has flipped millions of people in these ‘shoe-in [sic] seats’ see the same party colours representing them in Parliament.

“Being trapped with the same representation for decades is not the hallmark of a responsive and functioning democracy.

“With trust in politics at rock bottom and people desperately wanting to be heard, it’s vital we bring our democratic structures into the 21st century. This election should be the last ever conducted under the rotten First Past the Post system that has shut so many voices out.

“With millions of votes set to go to waste in this coming election, it’s about time the whole UK backed the reforms we’ve seen in Wales and Scotland and help build a better, more representative democracy.”

* The ERS tool for finding out when your seat last changed hands is  here

* Electoral Reform Society https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/

[Ekk/6]

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