Category - general election 2010 poll watch

  • 14 May 2010

    A new ComRes poll for BBC Daily Politics shows:

    · Reducing budget deficit – 60 per cent to 29 per cent say they expect the new government to be effective

  • 10 May 2010

    Polls at the weekend showed widespread support for a change to a more proportional voting system.

  • 3 May 2010

    The most important issue for disabled people when deciding how to vote is public services, according to the findings of a new ComRes / Scope poll published today.

  • 29 Apr 2010

    As we reported a few days ago all eyes should be on Lib Dem marginal seats.

    The Guardian's new ICM poll of Liberal Democrat target seats (possibly the first such study of these seats) came out yesterday evening. It looked at the first 42 seats seats where the Lib Dems need a swing of up to 6% to win.

    From the 2005 election result it finds:

    CON 35%(-1)
    LAB 18%(-5)
    LDEM 39%(+4)

  • 27 Apr 2010

    Three new polls out today show how close the race is now between the three biggest parties - with only 4- 5% between them.

  • 26 Apr 2010

    Two weeks ago, the Telegraph ran a column by Frank Field entitled: 'Why is there no talk about immigration?'. The answer may have now come to light, as the Sunday Telegraph seems to have failed to highlight findings from its own polling.

    In the ICM poll it commissioned, which was released on Saturday night, was a question about an amnesty for illegal immigrants (p10):

    Would you support/oppose: Allowing illegal immigrants who have a clean record and have been in Britain for 10 years or more, to become full British citizens?

    The findings:

    Support: 55%
    Oppose: 40%
    DK: 6%

  • 25 Apr 2010

    More discussion this morning from commentators trying to make sense of the ongoing disparity of poll results in today’s Sunday Papers:

    BPIX (Mail on Sunday) Con: 34, Lab 26, LD 30, Other 10

    YouGov (Sunday Times) Con: 35, Lab 27, LD 28, Other 10

    ICM (Sun Tel) Con: 35, Lab 26, LD 31, Other 8

    OnePoll (People) Con: 32, Lab 23, LD 32, Other 13

    IPSOS MORI (News of the World) Con 36, Lab 30, LD 23, Other 11

    ComRes (Indy on Sunday and Mirror) Con: 34, Lab 28, LD 29, Other 9

    To add to the complexity, YouGov polling in the Lab-Con marginals shows the Tories slipping to 34%. Labour is on 35% and the Lib Dems have jumped to 26%. This still represents a pro-Conservative swing, because of the drop in Labour support, but of only 4%, in line with the overall national swing. It would give the Tories 57 of these seats, not enough for a majority.

    On the eve of the election campaign (before the first TV debate and the Lib Dem surge) I suggested that this election would see quite an ongoing disparity in the polls caused by:

    - The Lib Dems doing much better as a result of the TV debates

    - The ongoing difficulties that pollsters have in dealing with Lib Dems

    - Misc. local factors that the polls wouldn’t pick up

    - Large number of retiring MPs

    - Reaction in some constituencies to certain MPs over expenses

    - Large numbers of ‘other’ candidates standing

    ...all of which are very hard to take account of using the usual polling methods.

    In the broader picture what now seems to be evident from the polls:

    1. The Tory vote share pretty consistent around 33-34%

    2. Lib Dems and Labour jostling for position around the 26-32% range, with Lib Dems apparently edging Labour into third

    3. The “Other” vote finally being squeezed as the Lib Dems pick up on the ‘anti-politics’ sentiment. Whereas ‘others’ were around 12-14% ten days ago, they are now hovering around the 9-11% mark.

  • 24 Apr 2010

    The ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror shows a tighter race between the big 3 parties, but has 'others' losing ground significantly:

    Con 34% (-1)
    Lib Dem 29% (+2)
    Lab 28% (+3)
    Other 9% (-4)

    (compared with most recent ComRes poll published 21 April)

    This leaves the Conservatives short by 55 of a majority on www.electoralcalculus.co.uk as follows:

    Con 271
    Lab 254
    LD 93

  • 22 Apr 2010

    A ComRes instant weighted poll of 2691 viewers of the Second TV prime ministerial debate has:

    - Clegg winning by a narrow margin

    - Clegg seen as the most honest in the debate

    - Lib Dems edging ahead with regard to voting intention

    - Brown the leader who exceeded most people's expectations

  • 21 Apr 2010

    Another 'humdinger' from ComRes tonight with their poll for tomorrow's Independent and ITV News showing a 10 point Tory gap over Labour, with the Lib Dems in between.