hung parliament

  • June 14, 2017

    There are times in our common lives when the tune changes, the light shifts a little and what had seemed monolithically oppressive begins to crack.

  • October 6, 2010

    This today from David Cameron, who led his party through an election campaign based on scaremongering about a hung Parliament, now addressing his party conference:

  • May 13, 2010

    History has great comic timing. It is 350 years this month since a major political compromise with an uncanny modern-day parallel.

  • May 12, 2010

    The Liberal Democrats have been criticised by Green Party politicians and activists for the terms on which they have agreed a coalition deal with the Conservative Party.

  • May 11, 2010

    Last week the British public did something extraordinary. With millions of different views and motivations, we managed to vote in such a way as to deliver a hung parliament, driving the first wedge in the door of a system that has for too long kept most politicians far removed from democratic accountability.

  • May 11, 2010

    No coalition has yet been formed, but politicians on various sides are already talking of “stability” as if it over-rode all other considerations of democracy and policy.

  • May 11, 2010

    Britain's first Green MP has warned against describing a coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats as a “progressive alliance”, saying that such a name would have to be earned.

  • April 26, 2010

    I was on Radio 2’s Jeremy Vine programme at lunchtime discussing the merits of a hung parliament and coalition government with Tory Nick Wood.

    Putting aside the specific economic and political arguments for and against, the following points struck me about the Tory assault on the idea of a hung parliament today. They are sending out hugely mixed signals, and also displaying double standards:

  • April 25, 2010

    More discussion this morning from commentators trying to make sense of the ongoing disparity of poll results in today’s Sunday Papers:

    BPIX (Mail on Sunday) Con: 34, Lab 26, LD 30, Other 10

    YouGov (Sunday Times) Con: 35, Lab 27, LD 28, Other 10

    ICM (Sun Tel) Con: 35, Lab 26, LD 31, Other 8

    OnePoll (People) Con: 32, Lab 23, LD 32, Other 13

    IPSOS MORI (News of the World) Con 36, Lab 30, LD 23, Other 11

    ComRes (Indy on Sunday and Mirror) Con: 34, Lab 28, LD 29, Other 9

    To add to the complexity, YouGov polling in the Lab-Con marginals shows the Tories slipping to 34%. Labour is on 35% and the Lib Dems have jumped to 26%. This still represents a pro-Conservative swing, because of the drop in Labour support, but of only 4%, in line with the overall national swing. It would give the Tories 57 of these seats, not enough for a majority.

    On the eve of the election campaign (before the first TV debate and the Lib Dem surge) I suggested that this election would see quite an ongoing disparity in the polls caused by:

    - The Lib Dems doing much better as a result of the TV debates

    - The ongoing difficulties that pollsters have in dealing with Lib Dems

    - Misc. local factors that the polls wouldn’t pick up

    - Large number of retiring MPs

    - Reaction in some constituencies to certain MPs over expenses

    - Large numbers of ‘other’ candidates standing

    ...all of which are very hard to take account of using the usual polling methods.

    In the broader picture what now seems to be evident from the polls:

    1. The Tory vote share pretty consistent around 33-34%

    2. Lib Dems and Labour jostling for position around the 26-32% range, with Lib Dems apparently edging Labour into third

    3. The “Other” vote finally being squeezed as the Lib Dems pick up on the ‘anti-politics’ sentiment. Whereas ‘others’ were around 12-14% ten days ago, they are now hovering around the 9-11% mark.

  • April 23, 2010

    Markets should take the prospect of a hung parliament in their stride, Charles Jenkins and Neil Prothero from the Economist Intelligence Unit have said.