As polling day draws close I’m reminded of a scene from the American TV show ‘The West Wing’.
As polling day draws close I’m reminded of a scene from the American TV show ‘The West Wing’. With the election very tight, the leader of the Democratic Party shakes his head declaring ‘I’ve never seen electoral math like this’. I think we all know how he feels.
At the beginning of this election campaign the Labour and Conservative Parties were neck and neck. As we get closer to 7 May, nothing much has changed. Despite all the UK wide tours, interview and ‘debates’, the rise of multi party politics means neither of the two main parties is likely to gain the 327 seats they need for a majority.
The predictions on how many seats each party will win vary, but they remain within a similar range. The Guardian poll projection suggests that the Conservatives will have 275 and Labour 269. Electoral Calculus gives both parties slightly higher figures the Conservatives reaching 280 and Labour 276 complete with some interesting infographics showing how all parties are losing voters to each other. Whilst the Daily Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 278 and Labour 268.
Unless the polls are completely inaccurate (which is possible if significant numbers of people are genuinely undecided, decide to switch at the last minute or are not declaring their true voting intention), neither of the main parties will win. Which leaves us with a number of potential outcomes:
1. A Conservative-led coalition.
If the polls are true, this could be difficult for the Conservatives to achieve. On 275-280 seats, they will need to form partnerships with more than one party. But their likely coalition partners don’t look like they’ll have the numbers either. The Liberal Democrats’ possible seat numbers range from 18-28, which will only get David Cameron to a maximum of 308. Even if you added UKIP’s three and the DUP’s eight, they still fall short. If the Conservatives managed to gain 290 seats they may struggle less, but a Conservative/Liberal Democrat/UKIP/DUP coalition doesn’t feel particularly stable. And would the Liberal Democrats countenance being in government with UKIP and the DUP? To be absolutely sure of a workable coalition, the Conservatives would need a four per cent lead to reach 300 seats. The Guardian’s poll of polls has the Conservatives two per cent ahead of Labour and a lot can happen in the final weeks. So this is still a real possibility.
2. A minority Conservative government.
Given how tricky it might be to form a coalition, the Conservatives may try and form a minority government instead. However, here again the numbers look problematic. Under the rules of the Fixed Term Parliament Act the only thing to stop them forming such a government would be if the opposition parties combined to have a vote of no confidence in them.. Unless they reach 300 or more seats, they cannot guarantee they would win such a vote. The could avoid a no confidence vote if they win public perception by describing themselves as the most popular party and pushing Labour into a corner to support their government on the basis of ‘stability’ or ‘putting the needs of the country’ first. Whilst some of the media appear to be preparing for such an outcome will Labour be brave and resist it? If Labour does back a minority Conservative government, it is hard to see how such a government will get legislation through as there will be so many opposition MPs in the House of Commons, they’ll struggle to win votes.
3. A Labour led Coalition.
Labour will probably have fewer seats than the Conservatives, but because there will be a larger number of anti-Conservative MPs they will have more chance of forming a stable partnership. Unless they gain significantly more seats, a coalition with the Liberal Democrats wouldn’t be enough. However, one with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP would give Labour a majority. At the moment, this is looking unlikely for two reasons. Firstly, Nick Clegg and the Conservatives have been peddling the idea that the party with the most votes has the first chance to choose the coalition. Whilst this is wrong, the view has gained a lot of traction that will be hard for Labour to counter. Secondly, Ed Miliband has made it very clear he wouldn’t enter into a coalition with the SNP. So unless he can come up with a strong reason for such a U-turn, one that voters can support, it looks like this won’t happen.
4. A minority Labour government.
This is where the numbers are most in Labour’s favour. If they are able to resist the powerful media pressure to support the Conservatives, they could force a vote of no confidence that David Cameron will struggle to win. As long as Labour has managed to keep some kind of positive communication with the SNP and Liberal Democrats outside of the mutual electoral bashing, the party should be in a strong position to win if the Conservatives push a vote of no confidence in Labour. And this position will be stronger the more seats they win. Of course, if Ed Miliband’s actions and speeches about Scotland have alienated Scottish MPs, he too may struggle and it’s possible he won’t be able to form a government of any sort.
5. Second election
The final possibility is that neither party is able to gain support to form either a coalition or a minority government. In which case, a second election will have to be called, and the whole process will start all over again. How a second campaign will run is anybody’s guess, though the chances are it will favour the main parties who have more resources to throw at it.
All of the above is still subject to immense uncertainty. A rise in UKIP’s vote in Labour/Conservative marginals will shift seats to Labour. A rise in Green/Plaid Cymru/TUSC share of the vote in the same marginals could shift seats the other way. The predicted SNP wipe out of Scottish Labour may not transpire, or may not be as bad as is currently predicted. Every seat Labour holds on to in Scotland improves Ed Miliband’s chances of reaching number 10. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats might not be as dire as some have suggested, which may be beneficial for the Conservatives. And the advantage of incumbency may strengthen David Cameron’s position.
All of which means 7 May will be a fascinating evening for observers, if not for politicians. To paraphrase Bette Davies, they’ll be wise to hang on to their seats, there’s a bumpy night ahead.
* More on the issues in the 2015 General Election from Ekklesia: http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/generalelection2015
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© Virginia Moffatt is chief operating officer of Ekklesia. Before working for Ekklesia, she spent 30 years working in services for people with learning disabilities, most recently for Oxfordshire County Council.