Insurgents will return to Fallujah predicts professor
-16/11/04
A Christian professor of
Insurgents will return to Fallujah predicts professor
-16/11/04
A Christian professor of conflict studies has predicted that in coming weeks it will be discovered that many insurgents fled Falluja prior to, or during battle, and are continuing their struggle from multiple other locations.
The prediction comes as US and Iraqi forces launch operations in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul to clear insurgents who have been active in the city during the past week.
In an article on the web site of the thintank Ekklesia, Dr Ron Kraybill, an associate professor of conflict studies in the Conflict Transformation Programme at Eastern Mennonite University in the USA, suggests that in six months or a year from now, after civilians have returned, guerrilla attacks will be renewed in Fallujah too.
In the meantime, the associate professor says, a new wave of recruits, incensed at the barbarity of the foreigners, will have joined the insurgents and the conflict throughout the country will continue to spiral upward.
In the article on the Ekklesia web site, Ron Kraybill writes; ìWith few exceptions, this has been the pattern so far and there is little reason to believe it will not be repeated. The frightening truth is that America is now trapped, having played repeatedly the role most desired for us by guerrilla warriors, heavy-handed, weapon-toting foreigner with guns blazing. They could not succeed in demonising us
in the eyes of average Iraqis without our assistance and so far we have
cooperated nicely.î
ìTheir method is guerrilla warfare, whose aim is never to engage and defeat a standing army. Rather the goal is to exhaust the enemy in a protracted war that cannot be won by conventional means.
ìGuerrillas seek just enough engagement with the enemy to attract heavy investment of soldiers and equipment. Then they fade, for a repeat in other times and locations.
ìGuerrilla warfare succeeds not by defeating an enemy militarily but
rather by turning the broad population against the enemy. Thus a constant goal of guerrilla warriors is to goad the enemy into heavy-handed action that alienate local populations.
ìThe only way out is to remove all doubt that this is “our” invasion and that our own selfish purposes are what motivate us. We have to face the truth – we pretended to have global support but in fact had little all along, and we worsened that by insisting on controlling almost everything about the invasion.
ìThe price of getting out will be bearing the continued costs of economic and military support to stabilizing Iraq, while giving up American control over events and structures there: administrative, economic, political, and to some extent military.
ìThe sooner we do so, the more likely it is that others in the world will step in and give meaningful assistance, and the longer we wait, the harder it will be to ever recover from the global perception that
beneath our talk of liberation it is arrogance and rank self-interest
that drive us.
ìRelinquishing the ability to call the shots in Iraq may seem to some Americans a bitter price to pay, but the alternative, a decade of war and permanent alienation from most of the world, is far worse.î
Insurgents will return to Fallujah predicts professor
-16/11/04
A Christian professor of conflict studies has predicted that in coming weeks it will be discovered that many insurgents fled Falluja prior to, or during battle, and are continuing their struggle from multiple other locations.
The prediction comes as US and Iraqi forces launch operations in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul to clear insurgents who have been active in the city during the past week.
In an article on the web site of the thintank Ekklesia, Dr Ron Kraybill, an associate professor of conflict studies in the Conflict Transformation Programme at Eastern Mennonite University in the USA, suggests that in six months or a year from now, after civilians have returned, guerrilla attacks will be renewed in Fallujah too.
In the meantime, the associate professor says, a new wave of recruits, incensed at the barbarity of the foreigners, will have joined the insurgents and the conflict throughout the country will continue to spiral upward.
In the article on the Ekklesia web site, Ron Kraybill writes; ìWith few exceptions, this has been the pattern so far and there is little reason to believe it will not be repeated. The frightening truth is that America is now trapped, having played repeatedly the role most desired for us by guerrilla warriors, heavy-handed, weapon-toting foreigner with guns blazing. They could not succeed in demonising us
in the eyes of average Iraqis without our assistance and so far we have
cooperated nicely.î
ìTheir method is guerrilla warfare, whose aim is never to engage and defeat a standing army. Rather the goal is to exhaust the enemy in a protracted war that cannot be won by conventional means.
ìGuerrillas seek just enough engagement with the enemy to attract heavy investment of soldiers and equipment. Then they fade, for a repeat in other times and locations.
ìGuerrilla warfare succeeds not by defeating an enemy militarily but
rather by turning the broad population against the enemy. Thus a constant goal of guerrilla warriors is to goad the enemy into heavy-handed action that alienate local populations.
ìThe only way out is to remove all doubt that this is “our” invasion and that our own selfish purposes are what motivate us. We have to face the truth – we pretended to have global support but in fact had little all along, and we worsened that by insisting on controlling almost everything about the invasion.
ìThe price of getting out will be bearing the continued costs of economic and military support to stabilizing Iraq, while giving up American control over events and structures there: administrative, economic, political, and to some extent military.
ìThe sooner we do so, the more likely it is that others in the world will step in and give meaningful assistance, and the longer we wait, the harder it will be to ever recover from the global perception that
beneath our talk of liberation it is arrogance and rank self-interest
that drive us.
ìRelinquishing the ability to call the shots in Iraq may seem to some Americans a bitter price to pay, but the alternative, a decade of war and permanent alienation from most of the world, is far worse.î